28 US cents per kWh, if construction and operating risks are appropriately managed by plant vendors and power companies. At this cost, nuclear power would be cheaper than gasbased electricity if gas prices are above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power would stili be more expensive than conventional coal-fıred plants at coal prices of less than $70 per tonne. The breakeven costs of nuclear power would be lower ifa financial penalty on CO2 emissions were introduced. Nuclear power will only become more important if the governments of countries where nuclear power is acceptable play a stronger role in facilitating private investment, especially in liberalised markets. Nuclear power plants are capitalintensive, requiring initial investment of$2 billion to $3.5 billion per reactor. On the other hand, nuclear power generating costs are less vulnerable to fuel-price changes than coal- or gas-fired generation. Moreover, uranium resources are abundant and widely distributed around the globe. These two advantages make nuclear power a potentially attractive option for enhancing the security of electricity supply - if concerns about plant safety, nuclear waste disposal and the risk of proliferation can be solved to the satisfaction of the public. The contribution of biofuels hinges on new technology Biofuels are expected to mal<e a signifıcant contribution to meeting global road-transport energy · needs, especially in the 1 ENERJi DÜNYASI OCAK 2007 Alternative Policy Scenario. They account for 7% of the road-fuel . consumption in 2030 in that scenario, up from 1 % today. in the Reference Scenario, the share reaches 4%. in both scenarios, the United States, the European Union and Brazil account for the bulk ofthe increase and remain the leading producers and consumers of biofuels. Ethanol is expected to account for mest ofthe increase in biofuels use worldwide, as production costs are expected to fail faster than those of biodiesel - the other main biofuel. The share of biofuels in transport-fuel use remains far and away the highest in Brazil - the world's lowest-cost producer of ethanol. Rising food demand, which competes with biofuels for existing arable and pastureland, will constrain the potential for biofuels production using current technology. About 14 million hectares of land are now used for the production of biofuels, equal to about 1 % of the world's currently available Dünya Enerji Görünümü arable land. This share rises to 2% in the Reference Scenario and 3.5% in the Alternative Policy Scenario. The amount of arable land needed in 2030 is equal to more than that of France and Spain in the Reference Scenario and that of all the OECD Pacific countries - including Australia - in the Alternative Policy Scenario. New biofuels technologies being developed today, notably ligno-cellulosic ethanol, could allow biofuels to play a much bigger role than that foreseen in either scenario. But signifıcant technological challenges stili need to be overcome for these secondgeneration technologies to become commercially viable. Trade and subsidy policies will be critical factors in determining where and with what resources and technologies biofuels will be produced in the coming decades, the overall burden of subsidy on taxpayers and the cost-effectiveness of biofuels as a way of promoting energy diversity and reducing carbon-dioxide emissions. t (World Energy Outlook- WEO) 2006 Raporu Uluslararası Enerji Ajansı (IEA) tarafından her yıl hazırlanmakta olan ve dünya enerji sektörünün önde gelen referans kaynağı olarak kabul edilen "Dünya Enerji Görünümü (World Energy Outlook- WEO) 2006 Raporu" Kasım ayında yayınlandı. "Referans" ve "alternatif' olarak adlandırılan başlıca iki senaryo öngörülen raporda her iki senaryo için de küresel olarak 2030 yılına kadar fosil yakıtlar temel enerji kaynağı olmaya devam ediyor. Alternatif Senaryo'da ise pek çok ülkede halen değerlendirilmekte olan tedbirlerin uygulanmaya konması durumunda talepte ve karbondioksit emisyonlarında ne denli düşüşler ortaya çıkacağı gösteriliyor. Raporda ağırlıklı olarak işlenen Alternatif Senaryo'da, bir yandan enerjinin daha etkin ve temiz kullanımına yönelik önlemler, diğer yandan da nükleer ve biyoyakıtlar gibi alternatif enerji türlerinin daha fazla kullanımı öngörülüyor. Uluslararası Enerji Ajansı Dünya Enerji Görünümü çalışmalarında ilk kez bu yıl, nükleer enerjinin geleceğiyle ilgili özel bir bölüme de yer veriyor. @ "Enerjide Sürdürülebilirlik ve Küreselleşme: Verimlilik, Emisyonlar, Yeni Piyasa Oluşumlan"
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